So, lets try a stab in the dark, on who replaces Amber Rudd.
- James Brokenshire - Could come back to the front bench, solid May ally, ex-immigration minister, which could help as much as hinder him (Was pro-remain)
- Sajid Javid - Housing & Local Government, was hoping for money for his department, so moving him along solves that problem (was “Reluctant Remainer”)
- Michael Gove, could bring major change to the Home Office, could bring enthusiasm, far-right politics, and support May’s old policies (Major Leaver, Leadership ambitions)
- Jeremy Hunt - Experienced health sec., but he won’t want to move (Supported Remain, but less so now)
- David Lidington - Skilled, quiet manager - Minister for the Cabinet Office right now, hence already
- Phillip Hammond - “Safe pair of hands” chancellor, could be moved to Home Office to disagreements May had with him over Brexit. Would require a good replacement for him, and his own willingness to move.
- Chris Grayling - Pro-brexit, and had every other job. Not capable, but well-trusted by May
- Iain Duncan Smith - Pro-brexit, previously resigned under Cameron over cuts
Brokenshire, Javid both seem likely, but could be anyone. Gove’s love of a shakeup could support his resume (ex-education, currently Defra)